After yesterday's announcement of Brock Lesnar vs. Alistair Overeem for UFC 141, I immediately wondered whether the fight could pull in 1 million pay-per-view buys. That would certainly be par for the Lesnar course, but there are a few factors different this time that give me pause. Not least of them is the proximity of distance, or lack thereof, from now until that date which is compounded by the myriad factors that could change the buyrate outcome.
In the video below I go over most of the essential numbers in play: Lesnar's buyrate history, the down year in pay-per-view buys for the Ultimate Fighting Championship, Overeem's pay-per-view value, and much more. I encourage you to watch the entire video to hear the full scenario presented. I did fail to mention, however, a key change regarding UFC 141: it will take place on a Friday night. Because Saturday this year is December 31, the UFC didn't want to go head-to-head with a holiday with pretty significant participation. That may be why this fight was announced this far in advance. Perhaps the campaign prior to UFC 129 to let audiences know pay-per-view shows were moving to 9 p.m. ET rather than 10 p.m. ET gave them confidence to be flexible with timing.