As part of the fight card for tonight's Showtime main card for Strikeforce Grand Prix: Barnett vs. Kharitonov, light heavyweights Mo Lawal will battle noted grappler Roger Gracie. It's not clear what title implications there are for this contest as Lawal has not expressed interest in challenging for what could be a vacant title. According to Bodog, Lawal enters this bout as the favorite (-200), making Gracie the underdog (+160).
In this video, I argue Gracie's game is partly predicated by 'simplistic' if complete control. However, most of his takedowns rely on body locks or trips, something that should be hard to come by against Lawal. Lawal also is likely the far better striker and should be able to effectively manage distance en route to a decision victory.
My pick: Lawal, although I'm curious to see if Gracie can impress against a high level opponent.