As part of the main card airing tonight on Showtime for Strikeforce Grand Prix: Barnett vs. Kharitonov, middleweight champion Ronaldo Souza will put his title on the line against American Kickboxing Academy-product Luke Rockhold. Rockhold hasn't seen action in over a year and a half due to injuries. Souza last fought in January against Robbie Lawler at Strikeforce: Diaz vs. Cyborg.
According to Bodog, 'Jacare' (-600) comes in as a huge favorite over Rockhold (+400). In the video above, I essentially argue while Rockhold is talented, very athletic and willing to try to score from any position, he didn't really earn this title shot. Moreover, all of his fights - win or lose - have ended in the first round. That's typically a very big red flag when said fighter takes on someone much more battled tested.
My prediction: Jacare, by submission.