The Ultimate Fighter 14 Finale Betting Odds: Bisping Vs. Miller

Before the action for tonight's The Ultimate Fighter 14 Finale kicks off, let's take a look at where the (next to) last-minute odds have tonight's fighters in the three most important bouts. Namely, Michael Bisping vs. Jason Miller in the main event, John Dodson vs. T.J. Dillashaw in the bantamweight final and Dennis Bermudez vs. Diego Brandao in the featherweight final.

First, the main event. The odds as of the time of this post are as follows:

These odds are roughly where they should be. Bisping is a top 10 middleweight, but not top 5. Arguably he's never even beaten anyone in the top 10. Yet, Miller's best win at middleweight is over Tim Kennedy in 2007. Miller is the better pure grappler and very hard to finish, which makes the five-round aspect to the fight a real factor. So, the odds are moderately close, but rightly give Bisping an edge. Miller is a veteran, but is really untested against more talented, contemporary middleweight fighters.

Now, the bantamweight final. Below are the odds as of the timing of this post:

These odds are little harder to justify, although not wildly out of bounds. Dodson is a natural flyweight competing at bantamweight solely for the opportunity. Dillashaw is a former Division I collegiate wrestler who seems to be a quick study in MMA, all of which is buttressed by strong training with Team Alpha Male. I wonder if Dodson's 'safer' approaches to fights on the show combined with a partially villainous portrayal for giving the other team fight picks made a difference in the lines. They're not unjustifiable, but slightly out of balance. Dodson is an extremely experienced competitor for the weight class, a former Greg Jackson-product, offers a well-rounded offensive and defensive skill set and will likely have a notable speed advantage.

Finally, the odds for the featherweight final are as follows:

These odds I find to be completely out of touch. I've personally commentated a fight of Brando's where he lost (against Ururahy Rodrigues at UWC 8 in May of 2010). Brandao had a clear edge striking and a surprisingly respectable guard, but had clear problems with defensive wrestling. That's both in the center of the cage with single leg sweeps and against the fence with double leg scoops. Brandao's takedown defense has improved and he's now with Greg Jackson, so I don't mean to suggest he can't stop an opponent's takedown. He did so on the show, particularly in the semi-finals against Brian Caraway.

But Rodrigues, like Bermudez, was a bull dozer: a big, physical fighter with strong fundamentals and incredible strength. More importantly, Brandao's classic aggression, while a strength on this show, was a liability against Rodrigues. He overcommitted on strikes, put himself out of position and paid for it by surrendering takedown after takedown. He's also got issues defending strikes off of his back.

I'm not suggesting Bermudez is a world-beater, but he's tougher than he's giving credit. He stays focused on his gameplan and he's a powerful, driving wrestler. If he's patient and stays out of long exchanges on the feet, this is his fight to lose.