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Cotto Vs. Margarito Undercard Preview And Prediction: Mike Jones vs. Sebastian Lujan

In the second undercard bout of the HBO pay-per-view broadcast for the rematch between  Miguel Cotto vs. Antonio Margarito, Mike Jones and Sebastian Lujan step through the ropes for a welterweight bout. As with every other fight on the card, there's a distinct possibility for very good action with the fight.

The Fighters

Sebastian Lujan
Record:
 38-5-2 (24 KO)
Last 5 Fights:

  • July 1, 2011 - Win (KO-9) vs. Mark Melligen
  • May 13, 2011 - Win (Dec) vs. Jorge Miranda
  • March 11, 2011 - Win (TKO-4) vs. Juan Lucero
  • October 15, 2010 - Win (Dec) vs. Juan Dias
  • August 27, 2010 - Win (RTD-7) vs. Emilio Julio

Mike Jones
Record:
25-0 (19 KO)
Last 5 Fights:

 

  • June 25, 2011 - Win (TKO-2) vs. Raul Munoz
  • February 19, 2011 - Win (Dec) vs. Jesus Soto Karass
  • November 13, 2010 - Win (Split Dec) vs. Jesus Soto Karass
  • July 9, 2010 - Win (KO-5) vs. Irving Garcia
  • April 17, 2010 - Win (TKO-5) vs. Hector Munoz

 

The Fight

We've already previewed the opening bout between Delvin Rodriguez and Pawel Wolak. Lujan is like a fancier version of Wolak. He lacks big one-punch power, but he wears on you by constantly coming forward, forcing you into an inside fight and grinding away. In his last fight (against Mark Melligan) it was on full display as he took the fight on 9 days notice, overcame a hot start by Melligan but slowly wore him down with his pressure and eventually the talented Melligan started to go down. It was simply the pressure that eventually broke his foe.

There are flaws in Sebastian's game though, as he gets a little too cute at times. He'll drop his hands, use over the top head and trunk movement, showboat, crouch to low angles..etc. He can get away with that against a lot of guys, but in a sport that only takes one punch to change a fight, it's not always a great idea to drop your hands and taunt. Then again, Lujan's attrition-based style does benefit from the mind games as well.

Jones is a physical specimen, standing six feet tall but still able to make welterweight, thanks in large part to having fairly skinny legs. He's a good power puncher who uses his athleticism and footwork to try to control distance and pop off with solid shots. His jab is also a nice weapon, which is good given how tall he is for the weight.

There are some nagging issues for Jones as he wore down under pressure from Karass in their first meeting, winning a very narrow decision and still looked a bit uncomfortable at times in their second bout, even if he was able to make it clear on the scorecards. He also got caught a few more times by right hands against club fighter Munoz in his last bout, a stay busy affair which offered no real threat to Jones.

The right hand is a weapon that Lujan likes to use and if he saw the film of the Munoz bout he probably knows the opening is there. And he's probably also aware of the way Jones badly ran out of gas the first time against Karass and that has to make him feel decent about bringing his sapping style to the ring.

Both guys seem a bit easier to hit than they are but it's certainly Jones with the better technique and physical tools.

The Prediction

Jones is the favorite here, and for good reason. Top Rank is trying to match him in a way that maximizes his value. And make no mistake, as an American with good skills and a good look, there's value there.

I just can't get past Jones' first fight with Karass and the way he faded so badly. Lujan is an exhausting man to face and if Jones can't get to him early, I like Lujan to wear him out as the rounds wear on and do enough to take a very narrow decision. Then again, picking the Top Rank guy to get bumped off on a Top Rank controlled card in a close decision may be a bad idea.

Still, Sebastian Lujan by narrow decision.


More Cotto-Margarito Coverage From SBN
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